Technology assessment and Forecasting

Technology assessment and Forecasting

During this week’s lesson, we learned about factors enabling us to “foresee” the future trends of technology. This is not exactly a precise science but looking it can give us a glimpse into whether the technology will ultimately be game-changing.  One of the presentations which I particularly liked was Brennan’s presentation. It was basically about how science fiction can be an extrapolation about how the future could be like.

Movies like the Matrix were thrown in and we discussed whether future society could ever be like that. There are so many movies that show an apocalyptical earth and to rule out the possibility of them happening in the future would be pretty close-minded.

Prof also mentioned gadgets like the Nokia Morph which I thought was really cool and definitely something to get in the future!

Zi Hao also talked about cultural stickiness which I thought was pretty interesting. Whether culture should fit to the technology or technology fit in with the culture. By not understanding the culture and forecasting what the uses of the technology trying to be introduced will bring, failure will be imminent.

To conclude, I would give this week’s lesson a 7/10. The topic as compared to previous weeks was not as interesting however I still enjoyed the lesson. TWC has been a very enriching class and I have gained many an insight through attending the classes.

EMERGING AND FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES

In terms of the development and application of new and emerging technologies, we are limited only by our imagination – and, all to offer, the lack thereof. - Gurinder Shahi

This week we talked about emerging technologies and the many capabilities and gadgets we can expect to use in the near future. The above quote by Prof Shahi is very true, and wasn’t it Napoleon Bonaparte who once said “Imagination rules the world”? I’m guessing his imagination wasn’t running at full capacity during the Battle of Waterloo though haha. But I digress. Emerging technologies is a tremendously interesting topic as most of them are very intriguing and mind-boggling. First let me start off with an analysis of one of the articles in the reading list.

The article I perused was the one on Mike Adam’s take on the 10 emerging technologies he thinks will have a large impact on the future. The 10 emerging technologies are:

1.            Global electronic library

2.            Hydrogen fuel economy

3.            Augmented reality

4.            Practical robots

5.            High density portable power (battery)

6.            Fuel cell vehicles

7.            Genetic engineering of humans

8.            Computer/human system interface

9.            Vibrational medicine

10.          Superlearning systems  

Mike Adams made a point about how we are not going to rely so much on pure intelligence but on our ability to identify and organize important date as all the information will be in the global electronic library. The article was interesting and provided some insight into why he thought some of the technologies would be important in the future. Another point which I thought was interesting was his take on computer/human interfaces. He talked about how there should be a change in the interface as the old ways are just too slow. I am perfectly fine with using the mouse to point and click however what Mike Adams says does have some sense. He said that much of the technology to advance has been proposed firstly for those with disabilities. For example using the sensor attached to the head to control the cursor, thus cutting out the use of a mouse – making it hands free. However Mike Adams believes one day we will be able to just look at a folder and be able to open it by our brain activity alone. I think that would be extremely cool and would be a godsend for those who are paralyzed.  Most of his points are pretty sound, and he had some views about nanotechnology which I thought was very intriguing. The only bad thing I can say about this article was the topless picture of him near the bottom of the page, he kind of lose some credibility in my eyes O_o. One of his points which ties in with one of the presentations was the one about practical robots. I sincerely believe robots will be used extensively in the future, with menial tasks and then higher level jobs being assigned to them as technology advances. There have been many shows which have played out this scenario whereby robots are common in society. I believe that there is a place for them and they can and will make our lives easier. As for my classmates presentation about love with robots though, I am not quite sure of that. Would a robot be able to get my puns, wittiness, sarcastic comments and quips even if their chips are state of the art? (or could it be that no one gets me at all……) On the other hand, I guess love is blind, and if there are really people out there who plan to marry robots, I don’t see why they should be stopped.  

Moving on, we also talked about wireless technology whereby electrical appliances can be charged without the need for wires. I think this is absolutely wonderful especially if charging electric cars on the move could be implemented. In fact even if they could not be charged on the move and had to be stopped on a certain platform but all done without the hassle of wires I am sure that the sale of electric cars would be sky high, however the battery of the car also has to be sufficiently advanced to give the car some distance to the watt. In addition, Prof showed us a video on Claytronics, which really blew my mind. The ability to mold material like that to fit anything we want really can change our world. The video speaks for itself and the possibilities are endless. Lastly, a presentation was done on Metamaterials and invisibility. I think invisibility can be used for much good, however the possibilities that it can be used for evil is substantial as well. The military could apply it to many things and also it could be used by all sorts of lowlifes in society for criminal purposes.

In conclusion, the lesson on emerging technologies was the most interesting lesson so far and I was really captivated by the many new and exciting technologies that we went through. I give the lesson a 9/10 and I look forward to more lessons just as interesting.

Session 8: Energy, Transportation and World Change

The quote for last week’s lesson was

The days of fossil fuel are numbered. Renewable energy will drive the green revolution –Gurinder Shahi

This makes a lot of sense because resources like oil will be depleted in the near future and it would be wise for countries and companies to start looking towards renewable resources and their ways to harness them. We talked about the virtues of solar and wind power which I thought was very relevant. By harnessing the power of the sun and converting it to electricity, we will be able to power whole cities at no cost to the environment. By placing solar panels in the Sahara desert as per the Desert Tech project, enough power could be accumulated to power Europe by just using 0.3% of the Saharan desert. There are many implications for this project. Firstly, the Saharan desert solar panel project is being looked into by German companies. The German companies cannot be expected to invest hundreds of millions of dollars without any tangible benefits. As we discussed in class, these companies can also offer many hundreds of job opportunities, real investment into the local economies and upgraded infrastructure in many places. This project will be extremely beneficial to those who are involved in it, as long as the African nations are aware of their rights. These Renewable energies are soon to be the oil of today, and it would be wise to capitalize on this.

The readings for last week were pretty interesting, and the article I would like to bring attention to would be article 2 which talked about transportation and energy. These are a few points which I took away from the article.

-          There is a need to cut CO2 emissions as there will be a 60% rise by 2030 following the current trend.

-          Cuts in CO2 emissions will only come about by transforming the ways in which energy is supplied and used.

-          We need to rely on a vast portfolio of new technologies or at least make existing technology more efficient and cleaner.

-          Three ways – transform energy usage, energy supply and electricity networks (storage of electricity)

-          Some of the ways that we can transform energy use, example Cars with hybrid technology, Building equipped with solar panels.

The article focuses on Transport technologies – many of the steps taken now are important for long term transition and to achieve this action must be taken now

-          Governments must educate consumers about the fuel-economy implications of their choice.

-          Although most biofuels are more expensive than the current choices today, with R&D the price will go down in the foreseeable future

-          Energy consumption by cars – electric, hydrogen fuel cell and biofuels (ethanol produced from sugarcane)

Upgrading public transport networks –

-          Intelligent infrastructure whereby drivers are aware of congestion and can avoid them, ERP also works

-          Introduction of efficient vehicles capable of running on very-low-CO2-emissions fuel, with high efficiency, at a cost acceptable to consumers and governments and with acceptable performance.

-          Introduction of very-low-emissions fuels and provision of such fuels in sufficient quantity to meet the energy demands of the associated vehicles as the stock of such vehicles grows over time.

-          Provision of necessary infrastructure to produce and store the appropriate fuels and to transport these fuels to the point of fuelling.

 These are just a few of the important points which I took away from the article.

Following up, Prof talked about the use of nuclear energy in our present day. While we must strive to avoid incidents like the Chernobyl disaster, we must also consider the use of such a valuable resource. Nuclear energy has many pros, such as that is reliable and that it has a large energy output. However, its cons are that it needs very stringent safety regulations to ensure accidents do not occur (all it needs is 1 accident). 

Furthermore, the disposal of waste is also another contentious issue which needs to be fully addressed before nuclear energy can be readily accepted.

In conclusion, last week’s lesson was extremely interesting and engaging. I particularly liked the osmotic power presentation as it was something new and exciting which I have not heard of before. I believe it has a lot of potential and if costs can be kept down it could be very viable in many countries. The rating I would give for the class is 8/10 and I hope next lesson will be just as entertaining.

BioBusiness and Agriculture

Agriculture and the Environment

When we are finally able to grow the resources we need, we will finally be on the road to sustainability

– Gurinder Singh

The last class was on Bio business and the effects it can have on the field (haha punny) of agriculture. Technology has had a very important role in establishing better methods of farming and harvesting crops. An interesting example was that of the Rockefeller Foundation and Golden Rice. Some of the key points of how this golden rice has benefitted – Vitamin A is required for human growth and our intake of it is determined by our diet.  Many people and children suffer from Vitamin A deficiency and this causes many premature deaths.  Through genetic engineering, the rice has a gene which leads to the production of Vitamin A inserted; the accumulation of this Vitamin A gives the rice its golden colour. By supplying this type of rice seeds to farmers in less developed countries, many children will be able to get the supply of Vitamin A they need.  I think Article 27 of the Universal Human Rights charter is very apt in this case.

Article 27

·         (1) Everyone has the right freely to participate in the cultural life of the community, to enjoy the arts and to share in scientific advancement and its benefits.

·         (2) Everyone has the right to the protection of the moral and material interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he is the author.

Moving on, Prof also talked about how people who profess to not eat genetically modified foods should think twice, as there are many foods that fall under that category which we may not know about. For example, prof mentioned tomato ketchup and the kiwi fruit. There is a large list of genetically modified foods and foods like tomato and corn can fall into that list. This ties in with one of the presentations on the growing of meat in the lab! I find this really quite intriguing and I for one would not really have much of a problem eating lab grown meat. The human population will require larger and larger amounts of food which I believe in vitro meat production can sustain. Currently, we eat chicken from KFC with no regard of the chemicals the chickens are plied with to grow at a faster rate. After seeing how the chickens are treated just so that we can enjoy a fried piece of chicken, I have sworn off KFC for good. I would rather eat lab grown meat than eat chickens which have been ill-treated just so that they can fill the quota of production. I think most people would be rather squeamish about eating lab grown meat however as with time and more information about it gets passed on to the masses, I am sure almost everybody will take to it.

There was also a presentation on the use of Algae as a biofuel. There is research being done in the field and from what Melvin pointed out it could possibly help us off our dependence on environmentally unfriendly fossil fuel consumption. As algae can grow extremely fast and it can be cultivated in the sea, it can potentially save our earth. More research will have to be done in this field to make it commercially viable however. Hopefully there will be a day when all our cars run on biofuels which are produced without harming the environment.

Another article which I found really quite interesting was the one on plumpy nut. Before the presentation I have never heard of such a thing and I was quite inspired by the end of the presentation. It is really a case of a simple idea being able to affect millions of people for the better. Plumpy nut is really a case of a product that really is broken down to its simplest objectives, which is effectiveness, application and cost. It is relatively cheap, is easy to eat (it is in a paste like form hence young children can easily eat it by themselves), and it is nutritious and helps the children stop the onset of malnutrition.

In conclusion, the lesson was interesting and I learned a substantial amount from the presentations. The discussions were quite good even though we did not have much time due to the number of presentation. I give the lesson a 7.5 and look forward to the lesson after the break.

Biotechnology and World Change

Biotechnology and World Change

We had a pretty interesting lesson on Monday; one that revolved around biotechnology and biomedicine.  Prof mentioned that biobusiness compromised a large percentage of the economy. For example, I would like to touch on biotechnology in the agricultural aspect. In a primary sector such as agriculture, quite a substantial amount of research has gone into developing seeds which can be resistant to some viruses. This form of biotechnology is related to genetic engineering. There are many advantages to such genetic engineering however there are also disadvantages such as the trans gene can also be spread to bacteria or plants which were not supposed to have them, thereby creating a problematic situation. Another cool example of genetic engineering is the anti-freeze gene in the Atlantic salmon. By genetic engineering, the Atlantic salmon can be farmed in cold areas which could provide a source of food for that particular region. One thing which I thought was really interesting was when Prof said that bananas were 50% similar in gene make up as humans.

A presentation we had was about the electronic medical records (EMR). This electronic way of recording data of the patient would do without the traditional paper and clipboard that doctors and nurses use in hospitals. I believe that there are pros and cons with regards to the introduction of this new technology in hospitals. Obviously the medical records would be updated faster and more efficiently (from what was said about the doctor’s handwriting). However a problem brought up was the issue of privacy and whether patients would be comfortable with their records on servers. Furthermore, the hospital would have to provide many layers of back-up to the electronic records of the patients to ensure nothing is lost. Also, I foresee that there would be resistance to the change in the way records were handled.

Another presentation talked about the increase in clinical trials in India. I found Vince’s presentation pretty interesting albeit really long o_o. For class discussion we talked about how to prevent the exploitation of people in India to these clinical trials. I believe that the people there go in with their eyes wide open and understand that there are inherent risks in all the clinical trials conducted. Unfortunately the people who go for these trials are those who are desperate either health wise or financially. I believe that the most important point is to make sure that the clinical trials do not wilfully harm the participants. To battle this problem the relevant authorities in India must take charge and employ people of integrity.

Prof also touched upon the idea of designer babies and what is ethically acceptable. I believe that there should not be an instance where a parent chooses the aesthetics of their baby. Once allowed to choose the eye, hair and genetic make-up of a baby, a huge can of worms will be opened. I am in support of genetic engineering where if not used, the baby’s quality of life will be reduced, e.g. Down syndrome or various diseases.

Lastly, there was a very interesting presentation on organ printing. The gist of it was that we are close to being able to print organs that will be available for transplant. This is potentially amazing and we could be virtually immortal other than having dementia and going senile. A downside of this could be like the movie “the island” where humans are cloned to provide “backup organs” for their rich doubles. The world is advancing steadily and where once we were amazed by the “ear mouse”, we are now looking forward to creating new organs from scratch. In conclusion I found this lesson extremely fascinating and give it an 8/10. I look forward to more lessons like this.

Technology and World Change – Information and Communication Technology

The lesson began with yet another inspired quote by Professor Gurinder (other than the technology is easy, people are hard one haha) “ICT is the catalyst that facilitates the knowledge revolution.”

We started off the morning with a really interesting video about Project Natal. I thought the video was really cool due to the interactive nature of Milo. I especially like the part where she drew a picture and scanned it in and Milo was able to take it. What are the implications of the project? Prof talked about how in the future the use of immersive technology can help with taking care of children or interacting with senior citizens who have no one to talk to. I’m really not sure whether I agree with this. Although this immersive technology has come a long way, I am pretty sure I will not want to talk to a computer when I’m a geriatric. The immersive technology has its benefits but it could make us increasingly reliant on it. I believe the future is bleak when parents choose to let immersive technology coupled with surveillance functions raise their children. No doubt that immersive technology can have so many benefits; however, in this aspect I think it should not apply.

Next we talked about how the ICT age has benefitted us. One example is the ability to communicate with family and loved ones who are hundreds of thousands of miles away with a simple click of the mouse. One program used is Skype. I remember the first time I used video conferencing personally. That was when my sister was an undergraduate in America when I was in primary school. That time we had to go to a venue where they linked us up so we could contact her (which I believe was quite a bit of work). Fast forward a couple of years. My sister is doing her Masters yet again in the U.S of A but now I can video conference her from the comfort of my own room. John Marshall’s wife was quoted in the newspapers saying how much she appreciated the computer as it lets her talk to her grandchildren who are all overseas. This is just one benefit that ICT has given us. It allows us to break down borders and distance with a mere click.

In addition, we talked about technology in the Mass Media and how the printed media is losing out to the electronic kind. There is now a shift in how people are getting their daily dose of the news. Instead of the scene where a white collar worker is reading the business times newspaper, there are more and more workers who are reading the online versions of it in their office. Is it more convenient and easier to search online for backup information when reading an article? Yes and yes. Coupled with e-readers such as the kindle and ipad, and with the use of netbooks, the popularity of the printed media looks like it’s on the wane.

Furthermore, we also talked about whether there should be ICT provided for people in third world countries. I’m pretty sure of Prof’s stand on this and I do agree that the internet should be made available to everyone. However this is hard to do as many people in third world countries are struggling for the basic amenities and I believe that the internet and its many capabilities are far from their minds. I believe Imran was not trying to say that the people themselves should be deprived of the wonders of the internet and such, however that their more pressing needs should be taken care of by the government first. There will be no such thing as free usage to the internet provided in third world countries. There is a trade-off whereby I’m willing to bet that food or clean water will outweigh the availability of the internet. Although all it takes is one person to expand his mind and realize that there are better ways of doing things and that the world is so much larger than he once thought for ICT to accomplish something, it is tremendously hard in third world countries to achieve this one laptop for every child scheme successfully. I do believe though that education is the only way out of poverty for these children, hence I fully support the scheme.

Another thing that piqued my interest was the website Kiva, where you can donate money to budding entrepreneurs with the promise of repayment. I think the person who thought up Kiva is pretty much a genius. I would so much rather donate money to someone who actually has a plan on how to use the money to get themselves out of poverty, even if the loan is not repaid. This is much better than the Crowd rise website I believe where prizes are up for grabs.

Lastly, we talked about the wonders of cloud computing and how everybody can benefit from its use. We watched a pretty informative video which allowed me to better understand what cloud computing is. In conclusion, the lesson on ICT only further impressed upon me the importance of ICT in our present day and age. We need to embrace it and help it along to those who are denied it; by doing so, we are sure to progress. I give the lesson a 7/10 and look forward to future lessons.

Drivers of World Change; Change Management and Change Leadership

Drivers of World Change; Change Management and Change Leadership

He who rejects change is the architect of decay.  The only human institution which rejects progress is the cemetery.  - Harold Wilson

The first part of lesson 4 was on drivers of world change. The lesson was really interesting and I especially liked the part about germs being a big driver of world change. Before the class the subject of germs as a driver of world change did not even occur to me. Prof mentioned the various epidemics such as SARS and H1N1 and also the black plague. He also explained the link between the plague and religion which served to support epidemics as a driver of world change. Prof also mentioned the 3 ways to make a change, which are:

a.         Make it happen

b.         Respond when it happens

c.         Be “surprised” when it happens

A is basically the one in the forefront of change and is the proponent of change. B is the one who sees and acknowledges the change, and goes about to embracing this change. C is just one who is pretty much ignorant of the changes. I would think most of us fall under the category of B whereby we see the change and try to adapt and find out how to benefit from the change. A makes up a small handful of leaders who think out of the box and are open to new ideas (rising star falling star model?)

We touched on information and communication technology whereby someone pointed out that could an increase in the ease of acquiring information be used in the spreading of terrorism. They can do this by providing a source of extremist ideas that might influence the naïve people reading it. One suggestion to eradicate terrorism was to educate the people who are susceptible to being influenced by these ideas. I believe that this is a valid however I would like to also point out that not all terrorists are uneducated with a narrow vision of what the rest of the world is like. It is true that the uneducated are more easily influenced but there are many cases of terrorists who had a more than average share of education. http://frontpagemag.com/2010/01/20/the-educated-muslim-terrorist/ - the article is quite interesting and is a good read. 

For the second part of the lesson we talked about Change management and Change leadership. The difference to put it simply I believe is that a leader is one who has foresight and puts forth new ideas. The manager is the one who gets down to it and implements the idea. A manager is more of a nuts and bolts kind of guy as opposed to the leader. On the other hand, a Manager can be a good Leader and a Leader must also have a “managing” trait. One of the presentations was on the roles of a CIO in our changing world. Some of the responsibilities CIO’s have to take on are

 1) Ensuring the "IT house is in order."

 2) Leveraging the CIO's unique position to create business value.

 3) Becoming an expert on your industry's value chain and competitive dynamics.

 4) Influencing your CEO to create the proper climate for change.

I believe this goes to show that jobs in our ever changing world will not have a set of roles and responsibilities cast in stone as one always needs to be able to adapt and improve his repertoire of skills. Leaders and good managers will be able to do just that and by having an open mind and responding to that change it will put you in good stead.

In conclusion the lesson was quite informative although there was not as much discussion as in week 3, however I think previous lessons were more interesting and engaging. I give the lesson 7/10.